Weak Payrolls Pull The Fed Back, Bitcoin Outperforms Tech

Jesse Marre on softer labor data, calmer Hormuz traffic, improving CLARITY odds and a strong week for Bitcoin

A weak non-farm payrolls print and downward revisions to prior months have taken the immediate pressure off the Fed and reduced the market’s perceived need for a hike. At the same time, Bitcoin rallied sharply from 57,800 to 63,900 as capital appeared to rotate back from AI into crypto, while the Nasdaq sold off ~4 percent. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have remained contained and traffic is starting to normalise. CLARITY Act odds improved materially after the Major County Sheriffs of America moved to a neutral stance, removing an important law enforcement objection.

Macro: Weak Payrolls Remove The Immediate Hike Threat

Last week’s big macro number was non-farm payrolls, which came in at 57,000 versus 110,000 expected. The prior two months were also revised down by another 74,000 jobs. Combined with ISM manufacturing at 53.3 versus 54 expected, the data flow has clearly softened relative to the recent hawkish backdrop. The result is that immediate pressure on the Fed has eased and the market no longer sees a near-term need for a hike. The implied probability of a hike this year fell from 55 percent to 45 percent. This matters because the market had been bracing for a more hawkish path after the previous FOMC meeting and Warsh’s messaging. The payrolls miss now gives the Fed more room to remain on hold, at least for the moment, and it shifts attention to incoming services data, FOMC minutes and the next round of employment releases. Market participants will now watch whether softer labour data begins to translate into broader economic cooling or whether it simply delays the next policy inflection point. Key macro takeaway: The labor market is softening enough to reduce hike risk, but not enough yet to create an immediate easing narrative. The Fed is back in wait-and-see mode and the market has taken one step away from the idea of a 2026 hike.

Equities And Rotation: Tech Sells Off, Bitcoin Holds Up

The Nasdaq traded down about 4 percent on the week. Bitcoin, by contrast, traded well through the event. Jesse highlighted that Bitcoin historically moved closely with tech stocks, but that relationship has loosened recently as capital has rotated out of crypto and into AI. There is now a possibility that the AI trade is becoming stretched and that capital is beginning to rotate back from AI into crypto. That rotation, if sustained, would be supportive for Bitcoin relative to tech. The outperformance is notable because it suggests Bitcoin may be developing its own flow and narrative drivers rather than simply acting as a high beta version of Nasdaq. This week’s move was therefore not just about macro easing pressure. It was also a sign that the market is beginning to differentiate between AI valuation risk and crypto optionality. If that continues, it could help Bitcoin decouple further from the weakest parts of the tech complex.

Geopolitics: Hormuz Traffic Normalising

Geopolitical conditions were calmer this week. There were reports of some tankers being turned around in the Strait of Hormuz, but no further major escalations. Traffic is clearly beginning to normalise. Crude had been heavy throughout the week, falling to just above 70 dollars before stabilising slightly below 72. The market continues to price in the idea that escalation risk is gradually fading rather than intensifying. This calmer backdrop matters because the earlier oil spike and escalation narratives were a meaningful source of inflation anxiety. With shipping lanes beginning to reopen and no new military escalation, the oil market has been able to ease some of that pressure. That is constructive for risk assets more broadly and helps explain why equities and Bitcoin were able to behave more constructively even while the Nasdaq was weak. Market Level Comment Just below 72 Fell to a low of just above 70 Brent Just above 70 Markets pricing reduced escalation risk Oil low Nasdaq -4% high to low Tech sold off on weaker risk sentiment +10% low to high Bitcoin Outperformed tech decisively Source: Hilbert Trader’s Call 6 July 2026

CLARITY Act: Sheriffs Move Neutral, Odds Jump To 55%

The strongest positive crypto-specific development this week came from the CLARITY Act. The Major County Sheriffs of America (MCSA), one of the largest law enforcement bodies in the country, moved from opposing the bill to taking a neutral stance. They explicitly framed the legislation as supporting responsible innovation. That shift matters because law enforcement objections around money laundering and cybercrime had been one of the major hurdles to progress. As a result, prediction market odds on CLARITY rallied from 40 percent to a high of 55 percent. Jesse framed this as an important change in the policy backdrop, particularly when combined with softer rate expectations and the AI rotation narrative. It does not guarantee passage, but it removes an obvious obstacle and gives Bitcoin another possible catalyst if lawmakers can keep momentum going. CLARITY catalyst: The MCSA moving to neutral is meaningful because it strips out one of the largest law enforcement objections to the bill. Odds moved from 40 percent to 55 percent, making CLARITY one of the clearest upside catalysts for crypto right now.

Bitcoin: Strong Weekly Rally, Important Resistance Ahead

Bitcoin rallied about 10 percent from low to high on the week, moving from a low of 57,800 to a high of 63,900 before stalling at the down-sloping trend line. The market has not yet broken that line on the first attempt, and price has softened a little today. Despite the sell-off in tech, Bitcoin traded far better than expected, which supports the idea that a rotation out of AI and back into crypto may be starting. Weekly ETF flows still showed 526 million dollars of outflows, but Thursday posted a 221 million dollar inflow, only the third positive day of inflows since the start of June. Technically, Bitcoin is now in no man’s land. On the upside, 64,000 is the trend line to watch, and above that there is a medium-term pivot around 65,500. On the downside, the Feb low at 60,500 is the first important support and 58,500 is the closing low that would open the door to a deeper move. The market needs one of those levels to break cleanly before the next directional leg can establish itself. Jesse Marre, Senior portfolio manager "Bitcoin traded much better than tech this week. With AI looking stretched, it is possible we are starting to see capital rotate back into crypto."

Volatility, Flows And Next Week

ETF outflows are still a headwind, but the pace of selling may be changing. The week’s 526 million dollars of outflows were sizeable, yet the 221 million dollar inflow on Thursday stood out as the third positive inflow day since June 1. That is not enough to confirm a durable turn, but it does suggest some buyers are beginning to reappear. The volatility backdrop remains manageable, with price action defined more by technical levels than by a violent macro shock. Looking ahead, today brings ISM services, Wednesday brings the FOMC minutes and Thursday brings existing home sales. The minutes are likely to be less important than the press conference that already gave the market a clearer sense of the Fed’s thinking, particularly around forward guidance and communication. That means the main focus this week will likely remain on whether labor data continues to soften and whether Bitcoin can convert its strong weekly rally into a sustained move through resistance. intended for professional and institutional investors only. Hilbert Group AB is listed on Nasdaq First North Growth Market.